2012 Primetime Emmy Awards

22 Sep

The 64th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards will be given out on September 23rd. The event will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. 

Here are my predictions for who will win (WW) vs. should win (SW) vs. my dream win (DW). But as with anything these people aren’t simply judged on the performances, there is politics and popularity. Why do you think they call it a “campaign”. Why do you think Hugh Laurie was nominated so many times and never won. He didn’t play the game and the EP on House David Shore is not well liked in the business. 

Keep in mind the Academy tends to get into a rut, once they start giving an award to a show or a person they tend to keep on giving it. I remember the year Candice Bergen stopped submitting her name for “Murphy Brown” because she had won so many years in a row she wanted someone else to have a shot. 

COMEDY SERIES

The Big Bang Theory” (CBS)
Curb Your Enthusiasm” (HBO)
“Girls” (HBO)
Modern Family” (ABC) – WW -SW
“30 Rock” (NBC)
“Veep” (HBO)

No dream win in this category, for my money “Modern Family” was the funniest of these shows.  I really don’t think VEEP or Girls deserved a nomination. VEEP had 8 episodes and Girls 12, compared to 22 that Big Bang or Modern Family produce each season.  VEEP and Girls are the new shiny toys and Lena Dunham is having her moment. I hope it is over soon.

COMEDY ACTOR

Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper in “The Big Bang Theory” | 
Larry David as Himself in “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
Don Cheadle as Marty Kaan in “House of Lies” | – DW
Louis C.K. as Louie in “Louie” – WW
Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy in “30 Rock” | – WW
Jon Cryer as Alan Harper in “Two and a Half Men” – SW

I will be shocked if the academy doesn’t award Baldwin again.  If the award was given for pain and suffering Jon Cryer should win. First he had to put up with Charlie and now Ashton, and yet he stayed classy and funny through it all.   I suppose all that TV money makes it a little easier to take. Dream Win, Don Cheadle, I know it wasn’t as many episodes as the networks, and Cheadle’s character was really offensive at times, but his performance was fearless and by far the most interesting on the list.  But we all know the Academy likes to play it safe. 

COMEDY ACTRESS

Lena Dunham as Hannah Horvath in “Girls”
Melissa McCarthy as Molly Flynn in “Mike & Molly”
Zooey Deschanel as Jess Day in “New Girl” | 
Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton in “Nurse Jackie”
Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope in “Parks and Recreation” – WW and SW
Tina Fey as Liz Lemon in “30 Rock”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer in “Veep”

Don’t get me started on the ridiculous nominations for Dreyfus and Dunham. If it isn’t Poehler’s year I will eat my hat. If anyone else wins it’s a crime.

SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTOR

Ed O’Neill as Jay Pritchett in “Modern Family” – WW
Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett in “Modern Family”
Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy in “Modern Family” – WW
Eric Stonestreet as Cameron Tucker in “Modern Family” | – SW
Max Greenfield as Schmidt in “New Girl” – DW
Bill Hader as various characters in “Saturday Night Live”

This is a tough category, all the Modern Family guys could cancel each other out, and the Academy could award Max Greenfield or Bill Hader. I say its between Ty Burrell and Eric Stonestreet

SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTRESS

Mayim Bialik as Amy Farrah Fowler in “The Big Bang Theory” – WW
Kathryn Joosten as Karen McCluskey in “Desperate Housewives”
Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy in “Modern Family”
Sofia Vergara as Gloria Delgado-Pritchett in “Modern Family” – SW
Merritt Wever as Zoey Barkow in “Nurse Jackie”
Kristen Wiig as various characters in “Saturday Night Live”

Wiig is respected and really popular right now, so it could be her year.  Bowen has won. Vergara has never won, and she was excellent last season, so this could be her year.

DRAMA SERIES

“Boardwalk Empire” (HBO)
Breaking Bad” (AMC) – WW
Downton Abbey” (PBS)
“Game of Thrones” (HBO)
“Homeland” (Showtime) – SW-DW
Mad Men” (AMC) – WW

This is so tough, Mad Men was exceptional this year, and it has won the last four years it was nominated.  I would love to see Homeland rewarded, but Game of Thrones or Boardwalk Empire could upset.  I know everyone is all Downton Abbey happy, but season 2 was awful.  If the Academy plays it safe its Made Men, if they have balls it’s Homeland.

DRAMA ACTRESS

Glenn Close as Patty Hewes in “Damages” | 
Michelle Dockery as Lady Mary Crawley in “Downton Abbey”
Julianna Margulies as Alicia Florrick in “The Good Wife”
Kathy Bates as Harriet Korn in “Harry’s Law”
Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison in “Homeland” WW – SW
Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson in “Mad Men”

If Claire Danes doesn’t win, then the academy (with all due respect) really does have it’s head up it’s ass.  The only way I will accept a Danes’ loss is a Moss win. 

DRAMA ACTOR

Steve Buscemi as Nucky Thompson in “Boardwalk Empire”
Bryan Cranston as Walter White in “Breaking Bad” | WW
Michael C. Hall as Dexter Morgan in “Dexter”
Hugh Bonneville as Robert, Earl of Grantham in “Downton Abbey”
Damian Lewis as Nicholas Brody in “Homeland” SW
Jon Hamm as Don Draper in “Mad Men” DW

Another hard one for me, Jon Hamm was flawless this past season, and he still has yet to awarded for his work. Why does the Academy hate him so much, he never wins the popularity contest.  Damian Lewis was a revelation, so much depth, playing a role within a role.  Cranston has won, Buscemi won last year, come on academy give someone else a try.

SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS

Anna Gunn as Skyler White in “Breaking Bad” –
Maggie Smith as Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham in “Downton Abbey”
Joanne Froggatt as Anna in “Downton Abbey”
Archie Panjabi as Kalinda Sharma in “The Good Wife”
Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart in “The Good Wife”
Christina Hendricks as Joan Holloway Harris in “Mad Men” – WW – SW – DW

I can make an argument for each of these women to win. But if we are judging based solely on acting, not politics, sentiment or popularity, then it should be Christina Hendricks’ year. But we all know how much the Academy loves Breaking Bad, and this is Anna Gunn’s first nomination.

SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR

Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman in “Breaking Bad” | 
Giancarlo Esposito as Gustavo ‘Gus’ Fring in “Breaking Bad” | WW
Brendan Coyle as John Bates in “Downton Abbey” – DW
Jim Carter as Mr. Carson in “Downton Abbey”
Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister in “Game of Thrones”
Jared Harris as Lane Pryce “Mad Men” – SW

Jared Harris turned in such a heartbreaking performance as Lane Pryce, his quite desperation as his financial situation worsened, his love for Joan, all culminating in his suicide.  Again, if Jared Harris doesn’t win I will take Brendan Coyle from Downton Abbey, he was certainly a stand out in a bad season. But Giancarlo Esposito is nominated, and again the Academy loves Breaking Bad.

MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

“American Horror Story” (FX)
“Game Change” (HBO)
Hatfields & McCoys” (History) – upset

“Hemingway & Gellhorn” (HBO)
“Luther” (BBC America) -SW
“Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia” (PBS) – WW

Hatfields and McCoys could be the upset, but I think Sherlock is a sure bet.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Connie Britton as Vivien Harmon in “American Horror Story” | – SW
Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin in “Game Change” – WW
Nicole Kidman as Martha Gellhorn in “Hemingway & Gellhorn” | 
Ashley Judd as Rebecca Winstone in “Missing”
Emma Thompson as She in “The Song of Lunch”

Toss up between Julianne Moore and Connie Britton, I dont know if the subject matter of American Horror Story will undermine Britton’s chances.  Moore’s Sarah Palin was damn good, she brought depth to what could have been a one note performance. There where actually moments when I felt bad for Palin.

LEAD ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Woody Harrelson as Steve Schmidt in “Game Change”
Kevin Costner as ‘Devil’ Anse Hatfield in “Hatfields & McCoys”
Bill Paxton as Randall McCoy in “Hatfields & McCoys”
Clive Owen as Ernest Hemingway in “Hemingway & Gellhorn” | 
Idris Elba as John Luther in “Luther”
Benedict Cumberbatch as Sherlock Holmes in “Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia” – WW

This is such a tight race, so many favorites and so many great performances. But I think Cumberbatch is the odds on favorite.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Frances Conroy as Moira in “American Horror Story”
Jessica Lange as Constance Langdon in “American Horror Story” – WW
Sarah Paulson as Nicolle Wallace “Game Change”
Mare Winningham as Sally McCoy in “Hatfields & McCoys”
Judy Davis as Jill Tankard in “Page Eight”

Jessica Lange all the way.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Denis O’Hare as Larry Harvey in “American Horror Story” – SW-DW
Ed Harris as John McCain in “Game Change”  – WW
Tom Berenger as Jim Vance in “Hatfields & McCoys”
David Strathairn as John Dos Passos in “Hemingway & Gellhorn”
Martin Freeman as Dr. John Watson in “Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia”

To be honest I only saw, Dennis O’Hare and Ed Harris. I wasn’t wowed by Harris’ performance, I thought he played himself with a wig, but he got the arm thing down.  Dennis O’Hare was really terrific, and I would love to see him win, but I don’t think the Academy is going to go for it.  It’s a toss up.

VARIETY SERIES

The Colbert Report” (Comedy Central) – WW
“The Daily Show With Jon Stewart” (Comedy Central) – SW
“Jimmy Kimmel Live” (ABC)
“Late Night With Jimmy Fallon” (NBC)
“Real Time With Bill Maher” (HBO)
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM

“The Amazing Race” (CBS) – WW SW
“Dancing With the Stars” (ABC)
“Project Runway” (Lifetime)
“So You Think You Can Dance” (Fox)
“Top Chef” (Bravo)
“The Voice” (NBC)

DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

Robert B. Weide, “Curb Your Enthusiasm ”
Lena Dunham, “Girls”
Louis C.K., “Duckling” – SW
Jason Winer, “Modern Family”
Steven Levitan, “Modern Family” – WW
Jake Kasdan, “New Girl”

Are they kidding me Lena Dunham got a nomination? Why is everyone in love with this troll. Her show was so skanky and mildly entertaining, is it because she has Judd Aptow backing her.

WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

Chris McKenna, “Community”
Lena Dunham, “Girls” – WW
Louis C.K., “Louie”
Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation” – SW
Michael Schur, “Parks and Recreation”

I hate to say it but if Lena wins anything it will be this category, I am sure they will throw her a bone.

DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

Tim Van Patten, “Boardwalk Empire” – WW
Vince Gilligan, “Breaking Bad”
Brian Percival, “Downton Abbey”
Michael Cuesta, “Homeland” – DW
Phil Abraham, “Mad Men” – SW

WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

Julian Fellowes, “Downton Abbey” – WW
Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon & Gideon Raff, “Homeland” – DW
Semi Chellas & Matthew Weiner, “Mad Men”
Andre Jacquemetton & Maria Jacquemetton, “Mad Men”
Erin Levy & Matthew Weiner, “Mad Men” – SW

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