Tag Archives: Bubble

Renew or Cancel Where is your show on the list

30 Oct

We are almost two months into the new TV season, and beginning November sweeps, so lets discuss what shows are “on the bubble”

Fun fact, “on the bubble” is actually a carpenter’s term, it means it “could go either way”, cancel or renew. 

Tv By The Numbers has two columns they run all season, one is the Renew/Cancel Index the other is Bubble Watch. While they are similar, Renew/Cancel is what would happen to a show if the season ended now.  Buh-Bye.  The bubble takes a guess at what will happen in May.

To determine if a show is “on the bubble” Tv By the Numbers uses the following when evaluating a shows status

  • ratings, not overall viewers, but the share of adults 18-49 (the only demo advertisers care about)
  • syndication money, it used to be a show didn’t go into re-runs or syndication until it went off the air, then it changed to 100 episodes, now the number has dropped to 88
  • who owns the show, this gets back to syndication money, a network will care more about renewing a show they own than one it doesn’t

For example Harry’s Law vs. Community, Harry’s Law has more total viewers then Community,  but they aren’t in the coveted 18-49 demo, and after this season Community will have enough episodes for syndication. It is easier to syndicate a 30 minute comedy then a one hour drama. 

This year The Big Bang Theory set a syndication deal record earning Warner Bros. 2million an episode. 

Shows likely to be cancelled

PanAm

Fringe (wahhhhhhh)

Body of Proof

On the Bubble

Once Upon A Time

Hart of Dixie

Nikita

Likely Renewal

Revenge

Happy Endings

The Good Wife

Certain Renewal

Castle

Mike and Molly

Vampire Diaries

To see where your favorite show is on the list click here.

Then come back to discuss in the comments.

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